Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1406 JFK 07:07 → AUS 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 2772 JFK 18:52 → AUS 21:18 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1406 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:07	AUS 10:04	5%	1%	0.7%	93%
AA 810 American	JFK 07:38	AUS 10:36	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1643 Delta Flight history →	JFK 13:40	AUS 16:47	6%	1%	0.6%	86%
DL 2323 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:10	AUS 14:06	7%	1%	0.6%	84%
AA 2303 American	JFK 12:26	AUS 15:10	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1233 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:53	AUS 22:36	11%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 2772 American Flight history →	JFK 18:52	AUS 21:18	13%	3%	0.7%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON