Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 5151 at 13:42, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 5151 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:42	BGR 15:16	9%	3%	0.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bangor on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	2h 45m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → BGR 13:22AA 1874	7h 23m	98%	88%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 13m Charlotte	CLT 12:20 → BGR 14:48AA 1411	6h 49m	96%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON