Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4697 JFK 08:42 → BNA 10:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 273 JFK 08:09 → BNA 09:30 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4697 Republic	JFK 08:42	BNA 10:16	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 4710 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:39	BNA 16:21	6%	2%	0.6%	75%
AA 4350 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 13:17	BNA 14:29	7%	1%	0.6%	80%
B6 273 JetBlue	JFK 08:09	BNA 09:30	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4919 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:44	BNA 09:20	17%	5%	2.6%	83%
DL 4908 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 20:00	BNA 22:05	26%	14%	7.8%	74%
DL 4909 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:50	BNA 17:47	26%	12%	5.8%	74%
DL 4662 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 11:30	BNA 13:13	27%	11%	4.8%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON