Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 5765 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–14%.

Safest bet that day DL 5765 JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 618 JFK 15:50 → BOS 17:17 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5765 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:00	BOS 07:26	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
YX 4364 Republic	JFK 08:44	BOS 10:11	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
DL 5733 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	BOS 11:15	6%	2%	0.6%	86%
DL 5595 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:30	BOS 16:08	8%	2%	0.6%	79%
B6 1018 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:59	BOS 11:26	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 4659 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 22:33	BOS 23:39	8%	2%	0.7%	79%
B6 1318 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 01:13	BOS 02:28	8%	3%	0.7%	65%
AA 4397 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 16:01	BOS 17:18	9%	3%	0.6%	63%
DL 5798 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 17:30	BOS 19:16	9%	3%	0.6%	63%
B6 8356 JetBlue	JFK 12:30	BOS 13:44	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 1118 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:20	BOS 14:43	12%	4%	0.7%	63%
DL 2639 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:59	BOS 22:44	13%	4%	0.6%	71%
B6 818 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:25	BOS 18:59	14%	5%	0.7%	69%
B6 618 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:50	BOS 17:17	15%	5%	0.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON