Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 2902 JFK 13:29 → BUF 14:59 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 1202 JFK 16:46 → BUF 18:26 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


B6 2902 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:29	BUF 14:59	8%	2%	0.7%	82%
B6 1202 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:46	BUF 18:26	9%	3%	0.7%	64%
DL 5223 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 08:00	BUF 09:41	11%	2%	2.9%	89%
DL 5264 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 22:40	BUF 00:38	17%	9%	8.4%	83%
DL 5296 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 13:29	BUF 15:09	18%	6%	4.2%	82%
DL 5250 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 17:29	BUF 19:25	26%	9%	8.9%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON