Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 358 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:17	BUR 20:35	11%	5%	1.2%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 42m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest	8h 54m	99%	93%
Alaska Details →	JFK 09:53 → PDX 12:50AS 19	2h 05m Portland	PDX 14:55 → BUR 17:13AS 1386	10h 20m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483	9h 55m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	55m Salt Lake City	SLC 20:50 → BUR 21:48DL 339	8h 21m	92%	79%
American Details →	JFK 14:42 → DFW 17:44AA 1953	3h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597	10h 16m	99%	76%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	3h 36m Seattle	SEA 13:52 → BUR 16:19AS 529	12h 19m	99%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON