tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → BWI 13:01DL 2711 7h 01m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 14:02 → BWI 15:53DL 2799 7h 13m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → BWI 18:41DL 2928 7h 41m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444 2h 18m Charlotte CLT 12:25 → BWI 14:04AA 2733 6h 05m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 19:30 → BWI 21:26DL 1257 8h 16m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:30 → BOS 19:16DL 5798 · flown by Republic 1h 19m Boston BOS 20:35 → BWI 22:29DL 5851 · flown by Republic 4h 59m 93% 87%
AmericanDetails → JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12AA 655 1h 15m Miami MIA 10:27 → BWI 13:17AA 1010 7h 22m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:55DL 2443 1h 03m Detroit DTW 19:58 → BWI 21:39DL 2715 5h 09m 94% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON