Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5015 JFK 09:49 → CHS 11:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 1273 JFK 07:55 → CHS 10:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5015 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 09:49	CHS 11:59	10%	3%	1.0%	83%
DL 5200 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 13:53	CHS 15:42	10%	3%	1.0%	75%
DL 5293 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 19:02	CHS 21:09	13%	4%	1.2%	72%
B6 1273 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:55	CHS 10:08	15%	4%	0.9%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON