Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4767 JFK 14:44 → CMH 16:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time Riskiest DL 5658 JFK 21:15 → CMH 23:31 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4767 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 14:44	CMH 16:45	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 5649 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 09:50	CMH 11:48	8%	2%	0.6%	83%
YX 4399 Republic	JFK 12:02	CMH 13:48	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5650 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:25	CMH 17:35	11%	2%	0.6%	71%
DL 5658 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:15	CMH 23:31	11%	2%	0.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON