Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 4671 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day AA 4671 JFK 06:45 → DCA 08:14 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time Riskiest B6 955 JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4671 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 06:45	DCA 08:14	5%	1%	0.6%	67%
YX 4586 Republic	JFK 08:44	DCA 10:16	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 5699 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 08:56	DCA 10:24	8%	2%	0.6%	60%
DL 5743 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 21:20	DCA 22:59	10%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 5713 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:10	DCA 16:38	11%	2%	0.6%	81%
YX 4463 Republic	JFK 21:50	DCA 23:15	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
B6 955 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:30	DCA 22:59	19%	6%	0.7%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON