Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2234 JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 606 JFK 20:45 → DFW 23:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2234 American Flight history →	JFK 08:15	DFW 11:11	5%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 1880 American	JFK 11:29	DFW 13:51	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1953 American Flight history →	JFK 14:42	DFW 17:44	7%	3%	0.6%	69%
DL 496 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:55	DFW 21:07	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
AA 606 American Flight history →	JFK 20:45	DFW 23:01	12%	3%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON