Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: B6 1 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day B6 1 JFK 06:00 → FLL 09:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 1801 JFK 18:32 → FLL 21:45 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 1 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	FLL 09:00	5%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 1422 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	FLL 10:07	6%	2%	0.7%	88%
DL 305 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	FLL 14:24	8%	2%	0.7%	80%
B6 1601 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:24	FLL 11:29	13%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:58	FLL 23:28	14%	4%	1.2%	68%
B6 2201 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:00	FLL 15:10	15%	4%	0.8%	68%
DL 1419 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:30	FLL 18:54	16%	3%	0.9%	75%
B6 1801 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:32	FLL 21:45	22%	6%	1.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON