Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 14–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1381 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:17	IAH 11:03	14%	4%	0.6%	66%
B6 281 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 14:29	IAH 17:19	19%	6%	0.6%	51%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	3h 58m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	8h 33m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 17m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → IAH 13:14DL 2673	6h 59m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 18:25 → IAH 19:28DL 2327	7h 18m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 08m Detroit	DTW 12:31 → IAH 14:18DL 1307	8h 03m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:55DL 2443	1h 30m Detroit	DTW 20:25 → IAH 22:24DL 1633	6h 54m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 14:36 → IAH 15:40DL 1223	8h 00m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 20:13 → IAH 21:24DL 1284	6h 43m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON