Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4422 JFK 16:10 → IND 18:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4423 JFK 19:47 → IND 21:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


YX 4422 Republic	JFK 16:10	IND 18:26	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
YX 4423 Republic	JFK 19:47	IND 21:53	11%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 4976 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 09:50	IND 12:12	14%	4%	2.3%	86%
DL 4984 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 13:59	IND 16:32	19%	7%	4.1%	81%
DL 4914 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:20	IND 21:02	25%	12%	8.6%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON