Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 12 nonstops are 4–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 411 JFK 06:40 → LAS 09:11 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 211 JFK 12:29 → LAS 15:06 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 411 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:40	LAS 09:11	4%	1%	0.6%	94%
DL 781 Delta Flight history →	JFK 00:14	LAS 02:48	5%	2%	0.6%	71%
DL 607 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAS 09:27	5%	1%	0.6%	85%
DL 807 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	LAS 14:01	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 1473 American	JFK 08:09	LAS 10:46	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 806 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAS 19:50	6%	2%	0.6%	82%
B6 1211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:45	LAS 19:30	7%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 568 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	LAS 22:20	7%	2%	0.7%	71%
AA 2536 American	JFK 13:37	LAS 16:22	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 511 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAS 13:43	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
AA 2440 American	JFK 18:09	LAS 20:32	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 211 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:29	LAS 15:06	8%	2%	0.6%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 26m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	8h 00m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:30 → DTW 18:55DL 2443	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 19:57 → LAS 21:13DL 916	7h 43m	94%	86%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 20m Phoenix	PHX 10:38 → LAS 11:53AA 2109	7h 51m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON