Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 29 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 171 JFK 06:00 → LAX 09:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 1223 JFK 20:57 → LAX 23:48 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 54% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 171 American Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 09:01	5%	1%	0.8%	89%
B6 123 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	LAX 08:49	6%	1%	0.8%	88%
AA 33 American Flight history →	JFK 07:05	LAX 10:07	7%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 3 American Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:58	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
AA 1 American Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:58	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 767 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:00	LAX 13:49	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 255 American Flight history →	JFK 14:40	LAX 17:48	7%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 771 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:57	LAX 17:54	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
AA 341 American Flight history →	JFK 15:40	LAX 18:48	7%	3%	0.7%	77%
DL 742 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	LAX 09:55	7%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 747 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:01	LAX 19:32	7%	2%	0.7%	81%
DL 707 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:27	LAX 19:22	8%	2%	0.6%	75%
DL 713 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:00	LAX 10:58	8%	2%	0.6%	78%
DL 773 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	LAX 11:54	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
AA 306 American Flight history →	JFK 17:00	LAX 20:19	8%	2%	0.8%	83%
DL 738 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:40	LAX 20:15	8%	2%	0.7%	77%
B6 223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 09:42	LAX 12:30	8%	2%	0.7%	83%
B6 1523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:15	LAX 18:16	8%	2%	0.7%	71%
B6 623 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 16:35	LAX 19:24	8%	3%	0.7%	74%
AA 302 American Flight history →	JFK 18:10	LAX 21:28	9%	2%	0.8%	76%
B6 423 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 13:00	LAX 15:58	9%	2%	0.7%	72%
B6 523 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:13	LAX 10:03	9%	2%	0.8%	83%
B6 1023 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:58	LAX 20:49	9%	3%	0.8%	73%
B6 323 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:30	LAX 11:25	10%	2%	0.8%	81%
AA 300 American Flight history →	JFK 21:30	LAX 00:54	11%	3%	1.0%	73%
DL 752 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:20	LAX 23:38	11%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 117 American Flight history →	JFK 21:20	LAX 23:53	12%	3%	0.8%	74%
B6 923 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 21:40	LAX 00:51	13%	4%	1.0%	58%
B6 1223 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:57	LAX 23:48	14%	4%	0.9%	54%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 00m Charlotte	CLT 08:57 → LAX 10:56AA 1995	7h 57m	97%	88%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 22m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → LAX 12:12AA 2027	8h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	46m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	92%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON