Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching Long Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 02m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	8h 59m	99%	88%
Alaska Details →	JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 18:35 → LGB 21:14AS 428	11h 14m	98%	70%
Alaska Details →	JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16AS 21	1h 58m Seattle	SEA 12:14 → LGB 14:39AS 717	10h 39m	96%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON