Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


DL 5408 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:38	MCI 18:10	31%	10%	4.6%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747	7h 13m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	1h 31m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	8h 57m	99%	90%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	1h 01m Charlotte	CLT 08:58 → MCI 10:35AA 1619	5h 36m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443	6h 49m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → DTW 09:23DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MCI 13:24DL 2741	7h 09m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660	6h 30m	97%	86%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	2h 20m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → MCI 13:48AA 3233	6h 49m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 17:49 → MCI 18:56DL 1130	6h 46m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON