Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: DL 2049 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2049 JFK 07:05 → MCO 09:59 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest B6 483 JFK 15:01 → MCO 17:54 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MCO 09:59	6%	1%	1.6%	84%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:53	MCO 12:51	8%	2%	1.3%	78%
DL 2775 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:27	MCO 14:17	9%	2%	1.9%	81%
B6 883 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:43	MCO 10:34	11%	2%	2.1%	75%
B6 183 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:12	MCO 13:04	13%	2%	1.8%	81%
B6 83 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:15	MCO 15:10	14%	4%	3.0%	69%
DL 1740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:59	MCO 23:19	16%	6%	5.1%	67%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:00	MCO 18:20	20%	6%	4.4%	76%
B6 483 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:01	MCO 17:54	24%	8%	4.4%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON