Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 655 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 11–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 655 JFK 05:55 → MIA 09:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2603 JFK 18:17 → MIA 20:59 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 655 American Flight history →	JFK 05:55	MIA 09:12	3%	1%	0.7%	95%
AA 2161 American	JFK 05:56	MIA 09:03	4%	1%	0.7%	no record
DL 1528 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	MIA 10:24	5%	1%	0.8%	86%
AA 2017 American Flight history →	JFK 07:30	MIA 10:45	7%	2%	0.7%	85%
DL 1514 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:08	MIA 14:22	9%	2%	0.8%	78%
DL 1428 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	MIA 23:37	11%	6%	1.3%	70%
AA 688 American Flight history →	JFK 12:07	MIA 15:23	12%	3%	0.7%	76%
DL 2500 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:10	MIA 18:53	15%	5%	1.2%	72%
AA 1174 American Flight history →	JFK 18:50	MIA 22:22	18%	6%	1.3%	74%
AA 1922 American	JFK 21:16	MIA 00:01	20%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 642 American	JFK 14:47	MIA 17:41	22%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 2228 American	JFK 16:00	MIA 19:04	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 2603 American Flight history →	JFK 18:17	MIA 20:59	27%	7%	1.2%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON