Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, DL 4986 at 19:11, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4986 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 19:11	MKE 20:37	16%	4%	0.7%	72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	1h 44m Boston	BOS 09:10 → MKE 10:54DL 5614 · flown by Republic	5h 54m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 10:51 → MKE 11:53DL 1151	6h 53m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	6h 10m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:52 → MKE 23:56DL 1268	7h 16m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 19:41 → MKE 20:41DL 2388	8h 31m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 15:29 → MKE 16:31DL 1206	6h 31m	97%	86%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 10:18 → MKE 11:28AA 1810	6h 29m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → MKE 11:58DL 3811 · flown by SkyWest	5h 43m	93%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON