Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2390 JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest DL 2245 JFK 17:59 → MSP 19:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 2390 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:15	MSP 09:25	5%	1%	0.5%	87%
DL 2414 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:35	MSP 13:50	5%	1%	0.5%	87%
DL 2245 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:59	MSP 19:45	10%	2%	0.5%	70%
DL 4933 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 18:20	MSP 21:00	30%	15%	9.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON