Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6–8% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 1322 Delta	JFK 07:13	MSY 09:18	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 1387 Delta Flight history →	JFK 15:31	MSY 18:02	8%	2%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	6h 37m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → BOS 07:26DL 5765 · flown by Republic	3h 54m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	8h 56m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	3h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	9h 10m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 22m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	6h 37m	98%	88%
American Details →	JFK 06:45 → DCA 08:14AA 4671 · flown by Republic	3h 09m Washington	DCA 11:23 → MSY 12:56AA 2586	7h 11m	100%	88%
American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	3h 29m Charlotte	CLT 11:26 → MSY 12:23AA 2030	7h 24m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029	1h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	5h 57m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293	2h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → MSY 23:31DL 2224	6h 51m	98%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON