Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3221 JFK 07:04 → ORD 08:45 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 4489 JFK 19:15 → ORD 20:34 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 3221 American	JFK 07:04	ORD 08:45	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
B6 905 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:05	ORD 08:50	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
YX 5599 Republic	JFK 19:39	ORD 21:12	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 788 American	JFK 10:35	ORD 11:55	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2909 American	JFK 14:58	ORD 16:33	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 4489 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 19:15	ORD 20:34	11%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 5119 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 10:30	ORD 12:20	14%	3%	7.0%	86%
DL 4725 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 07:30	ORD 09:25	26%	14%	12.5%	74%
DL 4783 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	JFK 15:00	ORD 17:11	26%	14%	23.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON