Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4359 JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest DL 5326 JFK 21:02 → ORF 22:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4359 American flown by Republic Flight history →	JFK 15:30	ORF 17:09	9%	2%	0.7%	83%
DL 5370 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 09:47	ORF 11:11	11%	2%	0.8%	84%
DL 5395 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 15:02	ORF 16:26	12%	2%	0.9%	75%
DL 5326 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	JFK 21:02	ORF 22:27	12%	3%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON