Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 5–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1574 JFK 08:30 → PDX 11:36 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AS 19 JFK 09:53 → PDX 12:50 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1574 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:30	PDX 11:36	5%	1%	0.6%	87%
DL 684 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:59	PDX 21:13	8%	2%	0.6%	68%
AS 19 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 09:53	PDX 12:50	9%	2%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 34m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 25m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	8h 46m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	JFK 18:00 → SLC 21:39DL 863	1h 11m Salt Lake City	SLC 22:50 → PDX 23:44DL 1373	8h 44m	94%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON