Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 791 JFK 08:10 → PHX 10:30 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 135 JFK 10:10 → PHX 12:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 791 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:10	PHX 10:30	6%	1%	0.6%	83%
AA 2369 American Flight history →	JFK 07:02	PHX 09:18	6%	2%	0.6%	88%
AA 2829 American Flight history →	JFK 12:29	PHX 14:43	7%	2%	0.6%	82%
AA 1186 American Flight history →	JFK 09:11	PHX 11:31	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
DL 798 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:35	PHX 21:08	8%	2%	0.6%	73%
AA 2606 American	JFK 18:29	PHX 20:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 819 American	JFK 19:19	PHX 21:32	10%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 135 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:10	PHX 12:49	11%	2%	0.6%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 14:54 → PHX 16:09DL 2284	7h 34m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON