Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, B6 1128 at 22:56, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


B6 1128 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 22:56	PVD 00:06	16%	4%	0.8%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	JFK 05:59 → CLT 07:57AA 2643	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 11:03 → PVD 13:17AA 1877	7h 18m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 10:00 → PVD 12:29DL 2147	6h 29m	97%	91%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DCA 07:55AA 4671 · flown by Republic	2h 00m Washington	DCA 09:55 → PVD 11:38AA 5619 · flown by PSA	5h 08m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 14:02 → PVD 16:29DL 2314	7h 49m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	8h 16m	98%	88%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	3h 35m Charlotte	CLT 13:42 → PVD 15:48AA 2679	7h 49m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342	1h 55m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	6h 59m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:07 → DTW 08:58DL 5080 · flown by Endeavor	1h 13m Detroit	DTW 10:11 → PVD 12:16DL 3723 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON