Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 683 JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 35 JFK 11:30 → SAN 14:27 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 683 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:55	SAN 11:55	7%	1%	0.6%	82%
B6 189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 07:45	SAN 10:34	8%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 709 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:30	SAN 20:34	10%	2%	0.7%	75%
B6 1189 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:59	SAN 19:01	10%	3%	0.7%	82%
DL 685 Delta Flight history →	JFK 20:29	SAN 23:43	11%	2%	0.7%	75%
AS 35 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SAN 14:27	11%	1%	0.7%	77%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 10:04 → SAN 11:43DL 843	8h 43m	98%	87%
American Details →	JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369	1h 30m Phoenix	PHX 10:48 → SAN 12:23AA 2122	8h 21m	96%	84%
American Details →	JFK 07:59 → CLT 10:07AA 1444	1h 08m Charlotte	CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466	8h 06m	95%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON