Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1719 JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AS 21 JFK 07:00 → SEA 10:16 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1719 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SEA 14:50	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 688 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:25	SEA 23:08	8%	2%	0.6%	68%
DL 740 Delta Flight history →	JFK 17:00	SEA 20:36	8%	2%	0.6%	71%
DL 699 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:14	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
B6 263 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 17:36	SEA 21:04	13%	3%	0.7%	71%
AS 31 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 16:29	SEA 20:09	14%	3%	0.8%	74%
AS 23 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 13:00	SEA 16:19	14%	2%	0.8%	78%
AS 21 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SEA 10:16	16%	3%	0.7%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 45m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	JFK 17:59 → MSP 19:45DL 2245	2h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 59m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	9h 10m	97%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON