Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 19 nonstops are 4–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 76 JFK 07:12 → SFO 10:27 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 667 JFK 19:15 → SFO 22:55 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 76 American Flight history →	JFK 07:12	SFO 10:27	4%	2%	0.8%	90%
AA 179 American Flight history →	JFK 07:58	SFO 11:19	5%	2%	0.7%	82%
DL 668 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:00	SFO 10:15	5%	2%	0.6%	74%
B6 115 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SFO 09:15	6%	1%	0.7%	83%
B6 215 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:30	SFO 14:08	6%	2%	0.7%	78%
DL 669 Delta Flight history →	JFK 09:00	SFO 12:19	6%	2%	0.7%	74%
B6 15 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 08:00	SFO 11:20	6%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 149 American Flight history →	JFK 10:29	SFO 13:54	6%	2%	0.7%	60%
AA 15 American Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:05	6%	2%	0.8%	75%
DL 363 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:15	SFO 14:33	7%	2%	0.7%	73%
AA 177 American Flight history →	JFK 21:26	SFO 00:59	7%	3%	0.9%	66%
DL 679 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:55	SFO 18:24	7%	3%	0.7%	75%
DL 365 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:30	SFO 20:06	7%	2%	0.7%	67%
B6 415 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:45	SFO 19:11	8%	2%	0.8%	67%
B6 515 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 20:59	SFO 00:38	8%	3%	0.8%	65%
AS 41 Alaska Flight history →	JFK 11:30	SFO 14:50	8%	2%	0.8%	64%
AS 27 Alaska	JFK 16:35	SFO 19:35	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
B6 615 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:30	SFO 22:10	10%	3%	0.8%	68%
DL 667 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:15	SFO 22:55	13%	3%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	1h 35m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 54m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 09:50 → CMH 11:48DL 5649 · flown by Republic	58m Columbus	CMH 12:46 → SFO 14:46DL 860	7h 56m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:35 → MSP 13:50DL 2414	1h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 37m	95%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON