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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via LAX, leaving 14:57, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 14:57 → LAX 17:54DL 771 3h 40m Los Angeles LAX 21:34 → SJC 22:58DL 3883 · flown by SkyWest 11h 01m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 2h 37m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 9h 35m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:00 → LAX 09:55DL 742 3h 02m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 10h 12m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → LAX 13:49DL 767 2h 12m Los Angeles LAX 16:01 → SJC 17:25DL 1359 9h 25m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → SEA 14:50DL 1719 3h 00m Seattle SEA 17:50 → SJC 20:14DL 4100 · flown by SkyWest 11h 44m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → JFK 07:02 → PHX 09:18AA 2369 2h 09m Phoenix PHX 11:27 → SJC 13:26AA 3940 · flown by Envoy 9h 24m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 10h 08m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 97% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON