Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1877 JFK 08:03 → SJU 12:01 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest B6 803 JFK 15:48 → SJU 19:55 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1877 Delta Flight history →	JFK 08:03	SJU 12:01	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
DL 1859 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:29	SJU 23:53	10%	3%	0.8%	70%
B6 503 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:00	SJU 14:14	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
B6 1603 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 12:25	SJU 16:22	14%	3%	0.7%	77%
B6 803 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 15:48	SJU 19:55	15%	4%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON