Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 5–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 892 JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 71 JFK 18:17 → SLC 21:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 892 Delta Flight history →	JFK 06:00	SLC 09:03	5%	1%	0.5%	88%
DL 917 Delta Flight history →	JFK 11:14	SLC 14:21	6%	1%	0.5%	83%
DL 887 Delta Flight history →	JFK 16:27	SLC 19:55	7%	2%	0.5%	80%
DL 863 Delta Flight history →	JFK 18:00	SLC 21:39	8%	2%	0.5%	75%
B6 71 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:17	SLC 21:49	11%	3%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	JFK 15:10 → DCA 16:38DL 5713 · flown by Republic	1h 07m Washington	DCA 17:45 → SLC 20:41DL 820	7h 31m	89%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON