Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


B6 161 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 18:20	SMF 21:49	13%	6%	0.7%	61%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	JFK 14:57 → LAX 17:54DL 771	3h 41m Los Angeles	LAX 21:35 → SMF 23:07DL 4083 · flown by SkyWest	11h 10m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887	3h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:04 → SMF 23:44DL 1582	10h 17m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892	2h 32m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	9h 16m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	JFK 15:41 → ATL 18:34DL 1480	2h 25m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	10h 12m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390	59m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 54m	94%	87%
American Details →	JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475	2h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:05 → SMF 13:41AA 2078	10h 11m	100%	86%
Alaska Details →	JFK 10:02 → PDX 13:04AS 19	1h 37m Portland	PDX 14:41 → SMF 16:12AS 1307	9h 10m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	JFK 11:14 → SLC 14:21DL 917	1h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	7h 53m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON