tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 16:27, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2459 American Flight history → JFK 08:22 SNA 11:31 8% 3% 0.7% 91%
DL 403 Delta Flight history → JFK 07:35 SNA 10:28 8% 3% 0.7% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:30 → LAS 14:01DL 807 4h 00m Las Vegas LAS 18:01 → SNA 19:15DL 4179 · flown by SkyWest 10h 45m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:30 → DFW 09:29AA 475 2h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 10h 29m 100% 89%
AmericanDetails → JFK 08:15 → DFW 11:11AA 2234 2h 03m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:14 → SNA 14:38AA 1933 9h 23m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → SLC 09:03DL 892 1h 52m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → SNA 11:50DL 1835 8h 50m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 16:27 → SLC 19:55DL 887 1h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 21:05 → SNA 22:00DL 1304 8h 33m 96% 86%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 09:53 → PDX 12:50AS 19 1h 58m Portland PDX 14:48 → SNA 17:19AS 264 10h 26m 98% 86%
AlaskaDetails → JFK 13:00 → SEA 16:19AS 23 2h 51m Seattle SEA 19:10 → SNA 22:01AS 631 12h 01m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 17:30 → SNA 19:00DL 2012 11h 00m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON