Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2042 JFK 07:05 → TPA 10:01 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2725 JFK 19:59 → TPA 23:14 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2042 Delta Flight history →	JFK 07:05	TPA 10:01	6%	2%	1.2%	88%
DL 2093 Delta Flight history →	JFK 14:30	TPA 17:39	8%	3%	1.3%	79%
DL 1636 Delta Flight history →	JFK 19:55	TPA 23:20	9%	4%	2.1%	76%
B6 225 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 10:44	TPA 13:46	15%	3%	1.3%	80%
B6 2725 JetBlue Flight history →	JFK 19:59	TPA 23:14	16%	6%	2.3%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON