tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:37 am at New York)
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind New York). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → JFK 06:00 → ATL 08:29DL 2286 2h 16m Atlanta ATL 10:45 → VPS 11:02DL 2048 6h 02m 98% 92%
DeltaDetails → JFK 17:40 → ATL 20:46DL 2293 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097 6h 49m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → JFK 08:40 → ATL 11:23DL 2227 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 6h 20m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → JFK 11:00 → ATL 13:33DL 1029 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:01DL 2170 6h 01m 95% 85%
DeltaDetails → JFK 13:10 → ATL 15:45DL 2342 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 18:28 → VPS 18:42DL 2803 6h 32m 96% 85%
AmericanDetails → JFK 06:23 → CLT 08:17AA 2643 3h 12m Charlotte CLT 11:29 → VPS 12:11AA 5165 · flown by PSA 6h 48m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → JFK 19:29 → ATL 21:53DL 962 1h 13m Atlanta ATL 23:06 → VPS 23:23DL 2745 4h 54m 89% 81%
DeltaDetails → JFK 07:15 → MSP 09:25DL 2390 1h 10m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462 6h 58m 89% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → JFK 18:50 → MIA 22:22AA 1174 48m Miami MIA 23:10 → VPS 23:59AA 4300 · flown by Envoy 6h 09m 61% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON