Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AS 73 JNU 07:36 → ANC 09:22 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 9563 JNU 23:41 → ANC 01:29 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 73 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 07:36	ANC 09:22	9%	4%	2.3%	88%
AS 7006 Alaska	JNU 11:43	ANC 13:37	12%	5%	2.3%	no record
AS 65 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:02	ANC 14:48	12%	3%	2.7%	82%
AS 67 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 21:10	ANC 22:56	13%	4%	2.1%	81%
AS 9563 Alaska	JNU 23:41	ANC 01:29	13%	5%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON