Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow: AS 333 at 05:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 333 JNU 05:05 → SEA 08:23 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 332 JNU 06:54 → SEA 10:18 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 333 Alaska	JNU 05:05	SEA 08:23	15%	4%	1.3%	no record
DL 1605 Delta Flight history →	JNU 07:20	SEA 10:56	16%	6%	1.2%	98%worse than usual
AS 66 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 18:31	SEA 21:57	18%	5%	1.3%	83%
AS 456 Alaska Flight history →	JNU 13:54	SEA 17:20	19%	5%	1.3%	72%
AS 304 Alaska	JNU 07:12	SEA 10:37	24%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 7096 Alaska	JNU 00:05	SEA 03:20	31%	10%	1.6%	no record
AS 332 Alaska	JNU 06:54	SEA 10:18	33%	8%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON