Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:53 pm at Kailua/Kona); 14 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 13 nonstops are 6–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today WN 2104 KOA 15:38 → HNL 16:36 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1137 KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 14 flights that already left today are not shown.


WN 2104 Southwest	KOA 15:38	HNL 16:36	6%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2225 Southwest	KOA 15:42	HNL 16:42	6%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2105 Southwest	KOA 18:58	HNL 19:56	7%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 2226 Southwest	KOA 19:03	HNL 20:03	7%	2%	0.3%	no record
AS 1167 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 19:08	HNL 20:09	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 1187 Alaska	KOA 20:39	HNL 21:38	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 1177 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 20:45	HNL 21:33	11%	3%	0.6%	89%
AS 1117 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:22	HNL 16:23	14%	4%	0.6%	78%
AS 1127 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 16:33	HNL 17:20	15%	3%	0.7%	85%
AS 1107 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 14:43	HNL 15:44	15%	3%	0.6%	76%
AS 1157 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 18:30	HNL 19:17	15%	4%	0.6%	76%
AS 1147 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:51	HNL 18:38	15%	3%	0.6%	75%
AS 1137 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 17:02	HNL 17:49	16%	3%	0.6%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON