Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 5:25 pm at Kailua/Kona); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 17:51, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:51 → HNL 18:38AS 1147	3h 13m Honolulu	HNL 21:51 → PDX 06:27 +1AS 961	9h 36m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	KOA 18:30 → HNL 19:17AS 1157	2h 26m Honolulu	HNL 21:43 → PDX 06:11 +1AS 879	8h 41m	97%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON