Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:35 pm at Kailua/Kona); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 18:30, is the safest bet: 65% chance of reaching Seattle on time.

Nonstops today


AS 259 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 22:23	SEA 07:19	13%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 485 Delta Flight history →	KOA 21:05	SEA 06:06	14%	4%	0.6%	93%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 3 h ahead of Kailua/Kona). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	KOA 17:02 → HNL 17:49AS 1137	3h 42m Honolulu	HNL 21:31 → SEA 06:22 +1AS 854	10h 20m	99%	66%
Alaska Details →	KOA 16:33 → HNL 17:20AS 1127	4h 00m Honolulu	HNL 21:20 → SEA 05:59 +1AS 122	10h 26m	100%	64%
Alaska Details →	KOA 19:08 → HNL 20:09AS 1167	3h 11m Honolulu	HNL 23:20 → SEA 08:00 +1AS 900	9h 52m	100%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON