Today: UA 1724 at 22:50 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 17–25%.

Safest bet today UA 1724 KOA 22:50 → SFO 07:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AS 404 KOA 15:40 → SFO 23:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1724 United Flight history →	KOA 22:50	SFO 07:00	5%	3%	0.7%	97%
UA 1722 United Flight history →	KOA 11:55	SFO 20:03	17%	6%	0.5%	81%
AS 404 Alaska Flight history →	KOA 15:40	SFO 23:48	25%	6%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Alaska Details →	KOA 12:15 → HNL 13:16AS 1087	1h 35m Honolulu	HNL 14:51 → SFO 22:52AS 812	7h 37m	95%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON