Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AS 62 KTN 12:49 → SEA 15:46 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 7005 KTN 10:19 → SEA 13:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 17% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 62 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 12:49	SEA 15:46	15%	4%	1.8%	88%
AS 60 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 08:56	SEA 11:54	17%	5%	2.1%	85%
AS 64 Alaska Flight history →	KTN 17:23	SEA 20:21	17%	5%	1.8%	86%
AS 7005 Alaska	KTN 10:19	SEA 13:10	17%	6%	2.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON