Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · 38 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1462 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 1462 LAX 06:09 → DAL 11:23 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1933 SNA 15:09 → DFW 20:03 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1462 Southwest	LAX 06:09	DAL 11:23	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 1382 American Flight history →	SNA 06:46	DFW 12:02	5%	3%	0.9%	89%
AA 2811 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	DFW 11:15	6%	3%	0.7%	87%
WN 3757 Southwest	SNA 07:47	DAL 12:31	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 2746 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	DFW 12:18	7%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 2893 American Flight history →	ONT 08:15	DFW 13:25	7%	2%	0.7%	87%
AA 2599 American Flight history →	BUR 07:01	DFW 12:19	7%	3%	1.3%	92%
AA 2766 American Flight history →	LAX 07:53	DFW 13:00	9%	4%	0.7%	84%
AA 3170 American	SNA 08:10	DFW 13:09	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
WN 2856 Southwest	LGB 08:28	DAL 13:14	10%	1%	0.5%	no record
F9 4690 Frontier Flight history →	ONT 17:25	DFW 22:36	10%	6%	0.9%	76%
DL 521 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:36	DFW 14:31	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 1412 American Flight history →	ONT 09:46	DFW 14:33	11%	3%	0.7%	89%
AA 2490 American Flight history →	LAX 00:13	DFW 05:07	11%	5%	0.7%	92%
DL 420 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:53	DFW 23:59	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
AA 1820 American Flight history →	ONT 10:15	DFW 15:14	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
AA 971 American Flight history →	LAX 00:31	DFW 05:41	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
AA 1686 American Flight history →	SNA 09:08	DFW 14:02	12%	3%	0.9%	88%
AA 1047 American Flight history →	LAX 08:55	DFW 14:04	14%	4%	0.7%	65%
AA 2114 American Flight history →	SNA 10:43	DFW 15:37	15%	5%	0.9%	78%
F9 2564 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 16:12	DFW 21:24	15%	6%	1.0%	72%
WN 473 Southwest	LAX 19:12	DAL 00:13	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4436 Southwest	ONT 14:13	DAL 19:00	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2956 American Flight history →	ONT 12:28	DFW 17:25	15%	5%	0.7%	71%
AA 1504 American Flight history →	LAX 18:32	DFW 23:43	16%	5%	0.7%	80%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	ONT 14:48	DFW 19:47	16%	5%	0.7%	73%
AA 2659 American Flight history →	SNA 16:58	DFW 22:01	18%	5%	1.0%	80%
AA 2024 American Flight history →	LAX 17:35	DFW 22:46	19%	6%	0.7%	54%
F9 4964 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 00:58	DFW 06:15	19%	8%	0.8%	75%
WN 2335 Southwest	LAX 14:35	DAL 19:29	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
AA 1657 American Flight history →	LAX 15:16	DFW 20:29	19%	6%	0.7%	57%
AA 1154 American	LAX 10:42	DFW 15:49	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1760 American	LAX 11:46	DFW 16:59	21%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 500 American	LAX 14:06	DFW 19:07	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1939 American	SNA 12:14	DFW 17:08	22%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 1208 American Flight history →	BUR 12:30	DFW 17:42	22%	6%	1.3%	73%
AA 2465 American Flight history →	SNA 14:39	DFW 19:33	22%	6%	0.9%	79%
AA 1933 American	SNA 15:09	DFW 20:03	23%	6%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON