Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 21 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 654 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–18%.

Safest bet that day UA 654 LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 2347 LAX 12:18 → HOU 17:31 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 654 United Flight history →	LAX 05:45	IAH 11:12	3%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2267 United	ONT 06:00	IAH 11:16	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2349 Southwest	LAX 00:49	HOU 06:05	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1416 United Flight history →	LAX 08:10	IAH 13:40	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
UA 491 United Flight history →	LAX 00:51	IAH 06:12	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
UA 700 United Flight history →	SNA 07:45	IAH 13:07	6%	2%	0.6%	93%
WN 3079 Southwest	ONT 12:38	HOU 17:48	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 277 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	IAH 15:40	8%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1143 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	IAH 15:04	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
F9 1756 Frontier Flight history →	LAX 06:09	IAH 11:32	9%	4%	0.8%	70%
WN 2215 Southwest	LGB 12:18	HOU 17:47	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 643 United Flight history →	SNA 15:05	IAH 20:27	11%	4%	0.5%	87%
UA 2765 United	LAX 15:18	IAH 20:52	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2377 United Flight history →	LAX 15:20	IAH 20:49	11%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1084 United	LAX 13:04	IAH 18:31	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United	LAX 11:44	IAH 17:00	11%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 4998 SkyWest	LAX 14:17	IAH 19:44	12%	5%	0.5%	no record
DL 1287 Delta Flight history →	LAX 18:35	IAH 23:59	12%	4%	0.7%	85%
UA 2044 United Flight history →	SNA 12:01	IAH 17:36	14%	5%	0.6%	74%
WN 2348 Southwest	LAX 08:34	HOU 13:44	15%	2%	0.5%	no record
WN 2347 Southwest	LAX 12:18	HOU 17:31	18%	3%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON