Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 37 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: AA 118 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 13–15%.

Safest bet that day AA 118 LAX 06:00 → JFK 14:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 1855 LAX 13:25 → EWR 21:43 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 118 American Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:37	5%	3%	0.7%	85%
B6 124 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 06:00	JFK 14:29	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 979 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	5%	2%	0.7%	90%
UA 2743 United Flight history →	LAX 07:00	EWR 15:37	5%	2%	0.7%	94%
AA 2 American Flight history →	LAX 07:00	JFK 15:39	6%	3%	0.7%	86%
B6 524 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 07:27	JFK 15:59	6%	2%	0.7%	80%
DL 938 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:37	JFK 16:04	7%	2%	0.7%	79%
UA 661 United Flight history →	SNA 06:45	EWR 15:21	7%	2%	0.8%	91%
DL 934 Delta Flight history →	LAX 08:38	JFK 16:57	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
B6 924 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 15:20	JFK 23:57	8%	3%	0.7%	81%
DL 915 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:01	JFK 08:20	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
B6 424 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 09:49	JFK 18:25	10%	3%	0.7%	80%
B6 624 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 14:30	JFK 23:10	10%	4%	0.7%	71%
AS 286 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 07:13	EWR 15:04	10%	3%	0.9%	90%
AA 28 American Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:54	11%	4%	0.7%	79%
B6 224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 12:35	JFK 21:09	11%	4%	0.7%	82%
B6 1224 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 00:05	JFK 08:31	11%	3%	0.7%	68%
DL 676 Delta Flight history →	LAX 00:00	JFK 07:58	12%	3%	0.7%	81%
AA 307 American Flight history →	LAX 14:46	JFK 23:14	12%	5%	0.7%	76%
B6 324 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 11:35	JFK 20:11	12%	5%	0.7%	77%
B6 1574 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:33	EWR 05:00	13%	4%	0.9%	83%
DL 958 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:54	JFK 18:12	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
AA 4 American Flight history →	LAX 13:00	JFK 21:34	13%	6%	0.7%	76%
DL 991 Delta Flight history →	LAX 15:15	JFK 23:21	14%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 238 American Flight history →	LAX 10:11	JFK 18:52	14%	6%	0.7%	71%
UA 1700 United Flight history →	LAX 16:08	EWR 00:40	15%	5%	0.7%	84%
AA 32 American Flight history →	LAX 11:05	JFK 19:46	15%	6%	0.7%	74%
UA 2127 United Flight history →	LAX 10:20	EWR 19:04	16%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 2459 American Flight history →	SNA 11:42	JFK 20:38	16%	6%	0.9%	73%
AA 274 American Flight history →	LAX 11:55	JFK 20:36	17%	8%	0.7%	60%
DL 951 Delta Flight history →	LAX 13:04	JFK 21:07	18%	5%	0.7%	74%
UA 2096 United Flight history →	LAX 11:34	EWR 19:46	19%	6%	0.7%	83%
DL 972 Delta Flight history →	LAX 11:33	JFK 19:29	20%	5%	0.7%	67%
UA 1981 United Flight history →	LAX 11:15	EWR 19:30	21%	7%	0.7%	72%
UA 1950 United Flight history →	LAX 14:03	EWR 22:18	21%	6%	0.7%	61%
UA 1559 United Flight history →	SNA 12:29	EWR 20:56	22%	9%	0.8%	64%
UA 1855 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	EWR 21:43	23%	6%	0.7%	62%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 08m Minneapolis	MSP 07:05 → LGA 10:44DL 2719	7h 12m	93%	87%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 08:31 → EWR 16:16AA 1327	7h 05m	93%	78%
United Details →	ONT 13:18 → DEN 16:38UA 1263	57m Denver	DEN 17:35 → LGA 23:30UA 2033	7h 12m	86%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON