Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 573 at 08:23 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–17%.

Safest bet that day DL 573 LAX 08:23 → FLL 16:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1717 LAX 10:58 → MIA 19:07 · 41% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 573 Delta	LAX 08:23	FLL 16:29	12%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 778 American	LAX 21:00	MIA 05:25	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
B6 1400 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 20:40	FLL 05:02	15%	8%	0.8%	78%
AA 1110 American Flight history →	LAX 06:30	MIA 14:40	16%	5%	0.8%	91%
AA 2777 American Flight history →	LAX 22:53	MIA 07:11	17%	5%	0.7%	91%
B6 1200 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 13:55	FLL 22:20	19%	8%	0.8%	87%
B6 1300 JetBlue	LAX 15:25	FLL 23:49	19%	9%	0.8%	no record
AA 2460 American	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:10	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 345 American Flight history →	LAX 08:00	MIA 16:19	22%	5%	0.9%	87%
DL 811 Delta Flight history →	LAX 09:40	MIA 18:07	22%	8%	1.2%	77%
B6 1700 JetBlue Flight history →	LAX 10:49	FLL 18:59	25%	6%	0.8%	75%
AA 3288 American	LAX 14:02	MIA 22:21	33%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 467 American	LAX 13:42	MIA 21:51	37%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 858 American	LAX 10:35	MIA 18:37	40%	12%	0.9%	no record
AA 1717 American	LAX 10:58	MIA 19:07	41%	13%	0.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	LAX 05:45 → IAH 11:12UA 654	56m Houston	IAH 12:08 → FLL 15:57UA 1982	7h 12m	94%	79%
American Details →	ONT 06:11 → PHX 07:30AA 1194	1h 28m Phoenix	PHX 08:58 → FLL 16:38AA 1505	7h 27m	94%	78%
Delta Details →	LAX 19:15 → SLC 22:04DL 1483	56m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040	7h 25m	86%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON