Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 688 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–10%.

Safest bet that day UA 688 SNA 08:15 → IAD 16:15 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 6 LAX 11:48 → DCA 20:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 688 United	SNA 08:15	IAD 16:15	5%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 2282 United Flight history →	LAX 21:20	IAD 05:15	6%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 418 United Flight history →	LAX 23:31	IAD 07:34	6%	3%	0.5%	93%
UA 2372 United Flight history →	LAX 23:15	IAD 07:15	7%	3%	0.5%	100%
UA 2268 United Flight history →	LAX 08:15	IAD 16:26	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
DL 392 Delta Flight history →	LAX 07:30	DCA 15:32	8%	2%	0.6%	81%
UA 2667 United Flight history →	LAX 10:39	IAD 18:48	10%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 3283 American Flight history →	LAX 08:23	DCA 16:29	10%	3%	0.7%	83%
WN 2333 Southwest	LAX 22:31	BWI 06:33	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1093 United Flight history →	LAX 10:10	BWI 18:20	11%	4%	0.6%	90%
UA 1164 United Flight history →	LAX 13:25	IAD 21:36	11%	5%	0.6%	94%
WN 4155 Southwest	LAX 11:18	BWI 19:17	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 591 American Flight history →	LAX 12:26	DCA 20:29	18%	5%	0.7%	78%
AS 6 Alaska Flight history →	LAX 11:48	DCA 20:00	23%	3%	0.7%	78%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	LAX 00:32 → MSP 05:57DL 430	1h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → BWI 10:42DL 2357	7h 10m	95%	89%
United Details →	ONT 05:00 → DEN 08:20UA 2446	1h 26m Denver	DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362	7h 17m	98%	89%
Southwest Details →	BUR 07:53 → LAS 09:05WN 786	1h 12m Las Vegas	LAS 10:17 → DCA 17:58WN 4555	7h 05m	100%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON